Friday, July 18, 2008

Billy Beane - Quantity over quality?


In the past couple of weeks, the A's have dealt Rich Harden and Joe "Buju" Blanton for prospects. I guess you could say that it's courageous of the organization to stick to the plan of building for the future rather than the present, despite a team that finds itself surprisingly close to contention. It can't be too popular among some fans who would like to see them go for it now while they have a shot.

In all the recent trades, including the Dan Haren and Nick Swisher deals before the season, the A's have gotten a lot of prospects, though many people, including Christina Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus, have wondered if they could have gotten better prospects. We already know that Beane is an unconventional general manager. The question is, why is he trading top players for apparently low returns?

In an age where the top draft picks require multi-million dollar signing bonuses, many of the best young players are off-limits to a frugal team like the A's. So if you eliminate the true blue-chip prospects, what if the numbers show that second-tier prospects don't pan out as often as many teams think? This is pure speculation on my part, but Beane may have decided that the best way to put together a contending team is to throw enough shit against the wall and hope that some of it sticks; acquire as many prospects as possible, and statistically you'll end up with more bonafide major leaguers, or even more stars.

He got six players for Haren and Connor Robertson, and already Dana Eveland and Greg Smith have exceeded expectations. Is it a fluke? Did he know something about these two players that no one else knew? Or was it just probable that, of the nine youngsters acquired in the offseason, two would pan out right away?

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